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+ | =======World_Observatory======= | ||
+ | =====Evolving borders in current events===== | ||
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+ | Content: | ||
+ | >• {{: | ||
+ | >• The psycho-mental map January 2012 | ||
+ | >• The psycho-mental maps throughout the events 2011 reveal a drama | ||
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+ | //**January 2012**// | ||
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+ | **Syria’s narrative of the world** | ||
+ | In the period of January 2012 the psycho-map of world society shows a diversified state of mind visible in the events. | ||
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+ | Main stories. The events of January express the dramatic road of conflicts in Syria, which can be read as the most significant main story of the period, “Syria’s narrative of the world”. It tells about a career typical for a trouble spot: In the Gulf states initiatives to negotiate evolve but they decay and outsource the decisions to the UN security council and to its big players where the rivalries between transatlantic and the Eastern players, China und Russia regain its significance. A second core sequence, “Baghdad and Iraq” demonstrate of how the mankind’s most vulnerable locations are experienced by people and actors, by blood and bombs. The third key-sentence of the January period is marked by “Clashes in Nigeria” mainly between Muslim and Christ groups. The existential, | ||
+ | The fourth series of core events are the conflicts between Iran and the transatlantic alliance, “Iran and West”. But in contrast to the former sequences the symbolic aspects of this power play are in the foreground despite the threats of war which are like eruptions within the range of probability. The fifth flow of key events remains still the “World financial and economic crisis”, articulated by many events emphasizing the EU and its impacts on the cohesion of its members, on labor markets and world wide developments. However, compared to the three first expressions these events reveal often more symbolic declarations than real actions. | ||
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+ | Side-stories. During January relevant side-stories are visible: The “Installation of the successor in North-Korea”, | ||
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+ | Signal-words. The streams of events contain a lot of rather individual events. But they are not singular and work like signals for probable developments in the future as well as “rests” from past event series. In the third circle of individual events, for instance, the speech of the Archmandrite at Christmas in Russia announces its probable role facing the presidential election process. The opening of a Taliban office in Qatar could signalize a change in Afghanistan’s deal with Taliban. The Croatian vote for the entry to the EU reflects a bifurcated decision, at the one hand, to leave the old burdens of Balkan past and to confine freedom, at the other hand. In Libya events show that the regime of Gaddafi’s era, the past, remains present and the future of the new regime is not consolidated. Last but not least, world society celebrates regularly its games: A Belarus woman became the champion in Australia and a Serb gained the title. | ||
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+ | **See the monthly abstracts ** (below) | ||
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+ | Syria’s narrative of the world (January 2012) | ||
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+ | Vaclav Havel and Kim Jon-il - two faces of global mourning (December 2011) | ||
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+ | Arriving at a burn out? (November 11) | ||
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+ | World society' | ||
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+ | Global society between macro and micro (September 11) | ||
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+ | Cassandra' | ||
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+ | Back to high-ideologies? | ||
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+ | Symptoms of late Roman Empire (June 11) | ||
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+ | Scenarios live (May 11) | ||
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+ | Back to own roads (April 11) | ||
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+ | The big explosion and unexpected eruption (March, February, January 11) | ||
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+ | Inner borders and external pressures (December 10) | ||
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+ | =====Diary of daily events and monthly abstracts of trends==== | ||
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+ | **//January 2012//** | ||
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+ | **// | ||
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+ | **Vlàclav Havel and Kim Jong-il – two faces of global mourning.** | ||
+ | Is it coincidental that nearly at the same time of 2011 two mourning-events disclosed the world’s psychic map? In the East, the deceased North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il represented the collective memory of a dramatic period, the polarization between West and East, between the liberal and communist world vision. The mourning involved almost the whole population of North Korea. On the Western side, Vàclav Havel symbolized the memory of another, euphoric period, the “Time of round tables” in Eastern Europe ending the period of two polarized worlds, which Kim Jong perceived as endless. World society revealed and emphasized both faces contemporaneously, | ||
+ | The events of December 2011 continue the series of November titled “Arriving at a burnout”. The “Euro-crises and the deficits in financial management” are worsening since efficient political efforts are still missing. The dramatic gaps between authoritarian power and people in the Arabic-African space, the bloody events in Syria as well as in Egypt or Yemen reveal the critical state of global society in this part of the world. A new sentence of events is emerging: The clashes and rivalries between different ethnic and religious groups became stronger, in Africa, Nigeria, and also in Middle East, Iraq. Heavy catastrophes, | ||
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+ | **// | ||
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+ | **Arriving at a burn out?** The events of November 2011 stimulate the understanding of the world society as a dramatic criss-cross of events. Thereby, we interpret the events as words and the series of them as sentences. In contrast to the models of planetary society as a system the world society is conceived as an organic entity as it is expressed in the term “mankind”. It is a giant who speaks through the events, expresses tensions, contradictions, | ||
+ | The second key sentence “Divide between dictatorships and people in the Arab and African parts” is very different and more dramatic; it contains 21% of the monthly events. The events in Syria and again in Egypt are bloody, attacks and counterattacks take place in several places of Arab and African area. Again the targeted hunting of bad figures in Africa, Saif al-Islam and Gbagbo, are symbolic measures of the civil and first world as well as diplomatic declarations of the Arab League, the leading powers and the UN. | ||
+ | The third sentence “Rivalries between significant players facing the sharing of global power”, embracing 13% of the words, reveals several events like the G20 conference missing a strong effect, the naval show of US facing China, the reactions of the latter, the conflicts between Iran and the Western alliance, the bomb error in Pakistan and the dissent between the various players facing the climate issues pursueing controversial interests. | ||
+ | The fourth key sentence is articulated in parts of global society, which were privileged before the crisis: “Explosion of social protests and strikes” (5% of words = events). In Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and UK this key sentence is noisy disturbing the management of the debt crisis; it could become a central key sentence in future. | ||
+ | World society is a polyphonic speaker. He absorbed to 70% of the monthly events by the four key sentences – summarized above. The rest of 30% of words are subordinate sentences. But they are essential since they send the signals that events and issues could return back or will become new under the sun. So four events create such a sentence: “Hopes for the technical feasibility of policy making”. | ||
+ | The world society uses singular words, events, which articulate often “small things”. But they play often the role as key words emitting signals in face of future events, which evolve later to significant sentences. Such events are, for instance, the birds in North Europe, which delay the date of seasonal emigration to the South because the climate is significantly warmer. So the speaking of the global giant addresses always the tomorrow – like a child tries to articulate sentences using singular words. | ||
+ | In sum, the world society expresses dramatic events during the November 2011, maybe really a turning period comparing it with the narrative of December 2010, only one year before. The capacity to cope with the diverse and intensified tensions is still weak – a disposition to arrive at a burn out? | ||
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+ | **//October 2011//** | ||
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+ | **World society’s face.** The events of October 2011 reveal the double life of world society. They show convulsions running over the skin, the surface of world’s body; they indicate contradictions and tensions inherent to its inner life. Selected pairs of events illustrate that: | ||
+ | • The death of Steve Jobs, founder of Apple, “greatest of American innovators”, | ||
+ | • Worldwide rallies of youth occupy the urban places, the most illuminated points in global dermis, throughout the earth (in 951 cities and in 82 countries). Simultaneously the Chinese Communist Party demonstrates its stoic face expressing the harmonic co-operation of all organs of its huge body for the next future. | ||
+ | • Tunisia seems to smile as the first country in the Arab world during its elections and building up a coalition joining the two traits to one national face, the Islamic and the liberal one. It contrasts to Syria where the bloody inner wars remain active as the most explosive volcano. In Egypt the disjuncture of religious groups is evident in clashes at public places and in increasing rivalries. | ||
+ | • Efforts failed to save the unique Vietnamese animal rhino, a part of its natural heritage – a further point of mourning in the earth’s face. But the world’s population attains 7 billions of inhabitants and will grow to 10 billions. | ||
+ | • Slovakia as new Eastern and marginal member was reluctant to agree with the bailout project of the official EU as well as its debt partners Greece and Italy, in Southern Europe, saw further violent clashes between opponents and police in the streets. Small actors became more relevant than in normal times. It seems that in peripheries and small states the inner social tensions oppose to strategies of “great words” of the big players and conferences. Events in the peripheries and small states contrast to the efforts of the grand nations and its leadership, for instance the “three-pronged” agreement to solve the debt crisis after marathon talks. | ||
+ | The face of world society shows an emotional period commuting between destructive trends and events tuning to confidence as the examples of October’s events illustrate. However, it seems that the inner life and the body of world society is too sick for showing a smiling face, contrary his face seems stoic or fear-ridden. | ||
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+ | **// | ||
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+ | **Global society between macro and micro.** The series of events of September 11 point out the dynamics and dialectic of how borders are changing and interacting. Thereby such changes disseminate from the big lines, the **macro-scope** of the geopolitical divide (transatlantic hegemony), to the meso-scope of tensions in relevant world regions (Europe), down to micro-scope of conflicts in smaller spaces (Israel and neighbors). Borders have a spatial as well as a temporal meaning, so the commemorative acts of 9/11 in several sites marked the transatlantic line in global space of a ten years’ period of “antiterrorist” control. But these events stay in contrast to the economic global governance which is seemingly losing weight: still the US financial markets, the unsolved debt issues and the pessimistic outlooks of world economy rocked the economic superiority of the transatlantic centers. Nearly everyday events gave signals similar to a fever chart worsening more than improving. The macro-scope is sensitive to concurrent dynamics of global borderlines in the hemisphere of emergent economies and actors. China launched its space station, is rousing expectations to help nations in the EU, Brasilia starts the preparation of megaprojects in face of the World Championship 2014, Russia decides to continue as geopolitical player again with Putin. Such events are a sign that the transatlantic borderline will be superimposed or perforated more and more by the role of emergent economies, China, India, Russia, Brasilia and other “heavy-weights”, | ||
+ | Events in the EU are substantially linked to these changes on the macro-scale, | ||
+ | A series of events of September 11 are essential in the border issues in the Middle East. Israel is confronted with the articulation of Palestinians as autonomous nation appealing the UN. Simultaneously the former security of external borders to Egypt, Syria and others, is not guaranteed, and contested by the occupation of Israel’s embassy in Egypt. Turkey started a new play as regional heavyweight in that region. Israel and its neighbors look like a **micro-scope** of the dynamics of borders: It has to play the role as stake- and shareholder of the transatlantic economic hegemony. But even in Israel the under and middle classes seem to be disappointed and they demand more sharing wealth instead of investments into weapons and army; youth protests arose like in many nations of the rich world. The crisis of EU has its negative impacts also on Israel, which is strongly related to Europe as well as to the US. The micro-scope shows the overlapping of several borderlines of the global body concentrated in the Middle East context. | ||
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+ | **//August 2011//** | ||
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+ | **Cassandra' | ||
+ | **One World** (global financial governance) underwent a dance of ups and downs but with a steady trend downwards. After the first period of crises (2008) a new era started: insight into the debts of relevant players and worsening impacts on the world economy. The One World drops back to the “golden era”, gold reached one of the highest values in history. The US state is confronted with a radical polarisation of how to react to the debts – high ideologies (tea party) attract significant parts of society. The EU is confronted with new “clients”, | ||
+ | **Negotiating World** suffers under a precondition: | ||
+ | **Holy World** shows still its overall relevance in many parts of world society: at the end of Ramadan in Iraq, Chechen, Nigeria and at other places tragic events illustrate the role of the hard borderlines. Nearly in all “war places” or “post-war places” the role of holy borders seem to be basic, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Turkey. Even in the EU such trends to conservative high ideologies are not excluded; Hungary wants back the “holy body” of early Hungary. | ||
+ | **Civil World** is still weak in face of hard conflicts, so in Syria. The efforts to convince the international community by “idealistic” appeals fail in face of the “real factors”, the divide of geopolitical and oil interests (what is the problem in Libya too). They generate chronic inconsistencies where and when sanctions will be implemented. Syria profits from that dilemma during the August period. A very relevant event series concerned London, the youth riots illustrating the increased inequality in European cities. Civil Society contains increasingly events, which reflect the divide between losers and winners, poor and rich people, so the protests of youth and middle classes in Israel. So the material drivers of civil society (social needs) could overcome the idealistic drivers (human rights) of Civil World. | ||
+ | **Cassandra** trembled intensively during the August 11 events, the financial crisis, but also through the voice of nature, the storm fears in the US, alarming reports that 12 Mio of mankind are stateless, or the Fukushima finally evoked political aftermaths, the resignation of actors responsible for the catastrophe. | ||
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+ | **//July 2011//** | ||
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+ | **Back to high-ideologies? | ||
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+ | **//June 2011//** | ||
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+ | **Symptoms of late Roman Empire** The alarming signals of Fukushima, the most urgent “Cassandra-signs” (since Chernobyl) are tranquillized as well as superimposed by the radicalized conflicts within the EU, mainly Greece and the Northern member states. The EURO-borders evolve to a source of various impacts on social conflicts (Greece and the Southern EURO-periphery and its stability). Simultaneously youth movements, “indignation”, | ||
+ | The June 11 events are rather chaotic and remember to symptoms of decay of empires: the increasing role of big figures switching between sex, crime and charismatic gestures (S. Kahn, Berlusconi, Gaddafi, Sarkozy et al.), of spectacular events and of the role of “show-effects” (Lybian war, Bin Laden). It seems that the most urgent problems, the financial risks of US, the aftermaths of the financial crisis, the poverty in the South, the real global problems are suppressed. This is linked to the fact that in many big player nations elections are prepared, in US, Russia, France, Germany, Italy, Egypt and in the Arabic world which strengthen the trends to choose its own roads. | ||
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+ | **//May 2011//** | ||
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+ | **Scenarios live** The systematic collection of event series (since 2008) can be compared with the qualitative interpretation of event series. In fact, the significant stream of events, “own and holy world”, gained a strong influence. It seems that they will increase – as in the May 11 series – due to the revivals of traditional actors and players in some Arab states as well as in Western nations or in the US. But it is evident that the counterpart, | ||
+ | But the most relevant aspect is that the “domesticating world”, the rivalries for hegemony became a war like character (Lybia, uprisings, repression, physical and cockpit wars). The Hobbes scenario increased since 2008 significantly and contradicts to the justification as “civil war”. It degenerated to the “imperata facere” by cockpit wars far from people, from the ground, life situations and minds. It is clear that the “domesticating” by a cockpit war and its civil justification are the main reason why the appeal of civil values is weak. Since 2008 “one world” scenario is affected by the consequences of the global financial crisis, which is still not pacified as the events in Greece illustrate during the period. The events in May show that the “negotiating world” is restricted to different regional alliances of world society and falling back to the own interests of leading nations (see Germany, US). | ||
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+ | **//April 2011//** | ||
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+ | **Back to own roads** The event series April 11 reflect the triggers and effects of events of previous sequences. But still the Libyan affairs are the core of events and attention. Simultaneously the failures of accident management in Fukushima, the long termed impacts on Japan, one of the leading players, on Asia and the international society are actualized. A significant trend is the separation of Libyan events from those in other Arab states, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and others. It seems that the comprehensive looking on the different parts and event series of Arab space becomes fragmented. In each country the inner rivalries, borders and particularities hamper comprehensive perspectives. It looks like the hegemonic players, its dominance as one world actor, profit from such an outlook: it reduces the collective responsibility as well as the singular players choose more individual responses. In that way the global negotiating power of the hegemons (US) but also of Russia and China and others as a whole could be freed; roads to “own” strategies and more self-regard are facilitated. | ||
+ | Still visible is the turmoil of financial affairs: in Europe the EURO-crisis and the debt problems (Iceland, Greece, Portugal and others); the debt problem of US is a threatening burden and addressed by Cassandra signs but not really addressed by measures. Indeed, the G20 decides a regular monitoring of financial players with a probable risk for the international and global society (US, China, Japan, Germany, France). Significant events address the urgent agenda of threatened nature and environment by commemorative events, i.e. 25 years of Chernobyl or impacts visible now of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. The aftermaths of rising food prices, the poverty and linked huger in specific regions are articulated but do not generate significant events which make evident efforts for measures. | ||
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+ | **//March 2011(including February, January)// | ||
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+ | **The big explosion and unexpected eruption** In that period two significant event-series wake up nearly all societies and its players. The Fukushima accident illustrates dramatically the dominance of earth (its inner life) over the security borders in the case of atomic power plants. The events describe how probable but not foreseeable the air quakes attack the man-made infrastructures, | ||
+ | The uprisings and protests in the Arabic world at the Southern border of Europe are huge eruptions passing the borders in a very short time. The Western parts as well as China and Eastern Europe were surprised and affected by this Arabic turn mobilizing protest movements. Over night borderlines transformed into portals of exchange, flight, emigration. The events produced trembling territories, | ||
+ | The events reveal the incapacities of political actors and institutions in the “civil” parts of world society – including the scientific expertises – they failed to perceive and forecast the real situations, people’s mind and mood behind the established borderlines. | ||
+ | Events, mainly the Lybian intervention, | ||
+ | The cockpit war seems directly derived from the principle of execution of Hobbes (“imperata facere”) but justified by “universal rights” going back to the stream of thoughts going back to civil society. The debates within global hegemony (Russia, China, African states versus Western alliance) as well as within the Western block (France, UK versus Germany, Italy and US) reveal the rivalries emerging within the Western alliance. The events indicate that the “who-is-who” in global affairs and border issues is less clear and explicit than in former periods when the dominance strategies were more collectively shared. These symptoms underline the trends from a period of “dominance” by the global economic and power to a period of “chaos” where events and trends follow more national or regional routes. Such trends favor autonomous, isolated and surprising options and developments. | ||
+ | In event periods one observes displaced issues. The financial threats, the debt problems of EU members and of the US, are less manifest than in the former periods (they dominated the December series 2010!). Evidently the global significance of Fukushima decreased in favor of the Libyan story of events which deliver elements of a big “show”. But the Fukushima events triggered intensive debates and impacts on the lower, national level where significant political changes in regard to energy issues have taken place (mainly in Western welfare states but not in the emerging economies). | ||
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+ | **Inner borders and external pressures** The EU's stress on borders is caused by the financial affairs and tensions between the heavy-weights versus failed nations. The continuity of EU as a global currency player, its external profile, is not guaranteed. As a consequence the "rally for the EURO" (Germany and France) is accompanied by efforts to regulate the bank systems risking to lose competitive power in financial markets. The borders vis à vis the new economies have to be opened in terms of energy supply (Russia) and trading (India). | ||
+ | //Borders are not fixed demarcation lines but functional outcomes of specific affairs within an area (EU) and to external players.// The events illustrate borders are " | ||
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